wAs far back as 1960, the American economy has benefited from strong growth of the 20-to-64 age group, historically considered the primary source of the labor force. However, starting around 2010, a demographic shift will begin, resulting in a large increase in the 65-and-over age group and a decline of the 20-to-64 age group. The Social Security Administration (SSA) reports annually on how projected demographic trends are likely to impact the Social Security trust fund income. Unlike the 2000 U.S. Census data, the SSA data is particularly useful because the projections are updated annually and take into account factors such as anticipated fertility, mortality and immigration rates. Figure 1 illustrates the scenario that the SSA considers most likely to occur. Starting in 2010, the demographic growth-rate balance starts to shift, and by 2015, the 65-and-over age group starts to grow at a faster rate than the 20-to-64 age group.
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